Friday, June 27, 2008

Herrera, la más rechazada


Aristides Cajar Páez
acajar@prensa.com

La precandidata presidencial del Partido Revolucionario Democrático Balbina Herrera es la que más rechazo genera entre los panameños, según la encuesta de la empresa Unimer, preparada para La Prensa.

Según la encuesta, el 12.7% de los consultados dijo que no votaría por Herrera.

Sin embargo, este rechazo era mayor el pasado mes de mayo, cuando el 14.9% señalaba lo mismo en una encuesta previa, aplicada por la misma empresa encuestadora.

Herrera y Navarro, los más rechazados


Aparte del alcalde Juan Carlos Navarro, Balbina Herrera y Ricardo Martinelli también concitan un alto nivel de rechazo entre los panameños. Esto, a pesar de que ambos también lideran las preferencias electorales como aspirantes a la silla presidencial.

Así lo indica la encuesta de la empresa Unimer, contratada por La Prensa.

Pese a que Herrera, precandidata del Partido Revolucionario Democrático (PRD), es a la que más rechazan, entre un grupo de seis posibles candidatos, quienes lo hacen son menos ahora: en mayo 16.6%, en la primera medición de Unimer, dijo que no votaría por ella y ahora esta cifra bajó a 14.2% de los consultados.

El nivel de rechazo que más creció después del de Navarro, fue el del candidato de Cambio Democrático, Ricardo Martinelli (10.8%).

Preguntados por quién no votarían si las elecciones se realizaran el día de hoy, el 10.8% de los encuestados señaló que no lo haría por Martinelli, mientras que en mayo de este año la cifra era de 7.9%.

Martinelli encabeza este mes las preferencias electorales (con 22.7%), seguido por Balbina Herrera, quien mantiene el segundo lugar, según la encuesta de Unimer.

La equiparación de salarios es ‘peligrosa’


Kemy Loo Pinzón
kloo@prensa.com

La Cámara de Comercio de Panamá cuestionó ayer la propuesta de ley que obligaría a ajustar el salario anual de los trabajadores y las pensiones al índice de inflación anual.

El presidente de la Cámara, Juan Ramón Varela, dijo que se trata de un proyecto “politiquero y peligroso”, porque podría agravar la inflación.

Su reacción se dio durante una rueda de prensa convocada luego de que la Comisión de Trabajo de la Asamblea Nacional aprobara en primer debate el proyecto de “indexación” salarial.

Ayer mismo, el proponente de la medida, Leandro Ávila, presentó el documento al pleno legislativo para que fuera incluido en el orden del día. Se pretende mejorar el poder adquisitivo del asalariado, dijo.

La iniciativa se discute en medio de la campaña interna del PRD y cuando el nivel de aceptación del jefe del Ejecutivo, Martín Torrijos, bajó, según una encuesta publicada el miércoles por La Prensa.

El director de la Caja de Seguro Social, René Luciani, manifestó que la propuesta de ley no tiene sustento actuarial y que implicaría fuertes erogaciones para el ya golpeado programa de pensiones.

Cámara de Comercio rechaza indexación

La Cámara de Comercio, Industrias y Agricultura de Panamá (Cciap) rechazó la aprobación en primer debate de la propuesta de indexación salarial, por considerarlo un “acto politiquero” en el que no se ha tomado en cuenta los efectos negativos que sufriría la economía del país.

La propuesta de indexación salarial consiste en ajustar los ingresos de los asalariados, pensionados y jubilados en base al aumento de la canasta básica alimentaria con respecto al año anterior, como referencia a la tasa inflacionaria.

“Esperamos que los diputados puedan recapacitar con respecto a la propuesta que es tema de planificación y política económica”, señaló Juan Ramón Varela, presidente de la Cciap.

A pesar de que la comisión de trabajo recibió informes del Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas y de los técnicos de la Caja de Seguro Social, “se prefiere sobreponer intereses individuales a un tema de interés nacional”, apuntó Varela.

Una posible consecuencia de esta política lo muestra la experiencia que ha tenido Venezuela en cuanto a la inflación que hoy supera el 20% anual.

En cambio, Varela sugirió cinco alternativas para mitigar la inflación. Entre ellas estaría eliminar temporalmente el impuesto al combustible (0.60 dólares por galón de gasolina y 0.25 por galón de diésel) y permitir que se deduzcan del impuesto sobre la renta de las personas naturales los gastos en la escolaridad privada.

La Cámara propone también reducir el gasto “innecesario” en las entidades públicas y utilizar el ahorro en programas de “atención social” como brindar almuerzos a los escolares.

Otra propuesta fue la de adelantar el beneficio fiscal del Plan de Apoyo al Consumidor para los asalariados que ganan menos de 2 mil 500 dólares a partir de la fecha, en vez de hacerlo desde 2009.

El diputado oficialista Leandro Ávila reiteró su posición respecto a la indexación salarial ayer ante el pleno de la Asamblea, al señalar que según datos de la Contraloría General de la República, la inflación para este año se prevé en 8%.

North Korea destroys nuclear reactor tower


YONGBYON, North Korea - North Korea destroyed the most visible symbol of its nuclear weapons program Friday, blasting apart the cooling tower at its main atomic reactor in a sign of its commitment to stop making plutonium for atomic bombs.

An explosion at the base of the cylindrical structure sent the tower collapsing into a cloud of white and gray smoke that billowed into blue skies as international journalists and diplomats looked on, according to video footage filmed by international video news agency Associated Press Television News.

The demolition of the 60-foot-tall cooling tower at the North's main reactor complex is a response to U.S. concessions after the North delivered a declaration Thursday of its nuclear programs to be dismantled.

"This is a very important step in the disablement process and I think it puts us in a good position to move into the next phase," said Sung Kim, the U.S. State Department's top expert on the Koreas who attended the demolition.

After the tower's tumble to the ground, Kim shook hands with Ri Yong Ho, director of safeguards at North Korea's Academy of Atomic Energy Research, who was the most senior Pyongyang official present.

"The demolition of the cooling tower is proof that the six-party talks have proceeded a step further," Ri said, referring to the nuclear negotiations.

The tower destruction was not mentioned by the North's media or shown on state TV broadcasts.

In the North Korean government's first reaction to the developments this week, North Korea's Foreign Ministry welcomed Washington's decision to take the country off the U.S. trade and sanctions blacklists.

"The U.S. measure should lead to a complete and all-out withdrawal of its hostile policy toward (the North) so that the denuclearization process can proceed smoothly," the ministry said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

The symbolic tower explosion came just 20 months after Pyongyang shocked the world by detonating a nuclear bomb in an underground test to confirm its status as an atomic power. The nuclear blast spurred an about-face in the U.S. hard-line policy against Pyongyang, leading to the North's first steps to scale back its nuclear weapons development since the reactor became operational in 1986.

Last year, the North switched off the reactor at Yongbyon, some 60 miles north of the capital of Pyongyang, and it already has begun disabling the facility under the watch of U.S. experts so that it cannot easily be restarted.

The destruction of the cooling tower, which carries off waste heat to the atmosphere, is another step forward but not the most technically significant, because it is a simple piece of equipment that would be easy to rebuild.

Still, the demolition offers the most photogenic moment yet in the disarmament negotiations that have dragged on for more than five years and suffered repeated deadlocks and delays.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the tower's destruction would mark a step toward disablement, something that has been ongoing for many months to prevent the North from making more plutonium for bombs.

"It is important to get North Korea out of the plutonium business, but that will not be the end of the story," she said in Kyoto, Japan, on the sidelines of a meeting of the Group of Eight industrialized countries.

North Korea's nuclear declaration, which was delivered six months later than the country promised and has not yet been released publicly, is said to only give the overall figure for how much plutonium was produced at Yongbyon — but no details of bombs that may have been made.

Experts believe the North has produced up to 110 pounds of weapons-grade plutonium, enough for as many as 10 nuclear bombs.

The declaration was being distributed Friday by China, the chair of the arms talks, to the other countries involved, U.S. envoy Christopher Hill said.

"We'll have to study it very carefully and then we'll have to work on verification," Hill said in Kyoto.

The declaration does not address the North's alleged uranium enrichment program or suspicions of its nuclear proliferation to other countries, such as Syria.

Oil climbs to new record above $142 a barrel

The associate Press

Dollar’s slump prompts investors buy oil as hedge against inflation

SINGAPORE - Oil prices climbed to a record above $142 a barrel Friday as the U.S. dollar’s protracted slump and falling stock markets prompted investors to take refuge in oil.

Prices were also lifted Thursday after OPEC’s president said crude prices could rise well above $150 a barrel this year and Libya said it may cut oil production.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery rose as high as $142.26 a barrel before pulling back to $141.40, up $1.76 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by early afternoon European time. The contract Thursday rose $5.09 to settle at a record $139.64.

The previous trading record for a front-month contract was $139.89, set on June 16.

The rise follows a sharp fall in U.S. stocks on Thursday and in Asia on Friday. “We need to observe that financial flows were leaving the equity markets as those markets are breaking below their support levels,” said analysts at Petromatrix in Switzerland. “When money has nowhere to go, it is parked in commodities as it is one of the few investment instruments that actually rises the more money you pour into it.”

The dollar also slipped against key currencies, as U.S. data showed sluggish economic growth and pointed to a struggling labor market. Oil is priced in U.S. dollars, and some investors buy oil contracts to protect the value of their assets against accelerating inflation when the dollar falls.

“The dollar movements caused the surge in oil pricing and the bullish trend remains intact,” said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. “The oil market is subject to further spikes in the coming weeks.”

On Friday, the dollar was unchanged in early afternoon European trading, with a euro buying $1.5782.

Also driving crude futures higher were remarks by Chakib Khelil, president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, who said Thursday he believes oil prices could rise to between $150 and $170 a barrel this summer. Khelil also said prices will decline later in the year, and aren’t likely to reach $200 a barrel.

Khelil joined a long list of forecasters who have made predictions of sharply higher prices this year. Each new forecast — such as Goldman Sachs’ recent prediction that prices could rise as high as $200 — causes a jump in prices as speculative buyers are drawn into the market.

Meanwhile, the head of Libya’s national oil company said the country may cut crude production because the oil market is well supplied, according to news reports.

Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut, said in a research note that Shokri Ghanem, the nation’s top oil official, has declined to say when a decision would be made on whether to lower production, or give any indication of the size of the cut under consideration.

But analysts expressed skepticism over the comments out of Libya, saying the current level of oil prices provides an incentive for producers not to cut output.

“I doubt that any real effort in cutting output would be forthcoming, considering that pricing continues to hit new records,” Shum said. “There’s no economic reason to cut output at this time so it’s just talk.”

Oil prices have more than doubled over the past year on concerns about rising demand in fast-growing economies such as China and India, and supply disruptions in the Middle East and Nigeria.

Analysts have also attributed oil’s rapid climb to speculative buying, with traders jumping into the market purely on the expectation that futures will continue to rise.

“Even though we have continued to see weakening demand in the U.S., other markets in the developing world still show growth,” Shum said. “The tight market has empowered speculators to invest in oil and the oil market is subject to further spikes in the coming weeks.”

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 6.55 cents to $3.9489 a gallon (3.8 liters) while gasoline prices rose 4.62 cents to $3.5575 a gallon. Natural gas futures rose 12.4 cents to $13.372 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Brent crude futures rose $1.32 to $141.15 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

Markets Plummet as Oil Hits Record; New Automaker and Bank Fears


By ALICE GOMSTYN
ABC NEWS Business Unit

June 26, 2008

Stocks plummeted today as oil hit a new record and signs of trouble from the financial, automotive and high-tech industries soured the mood on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 350 points, falling to its lowest level since September 2006. It closed at 11,453.42, a loss of more than 3 percent. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 also had bad days: the Nasdaq closed down 3.3 percent -- nearly 80 points -- at 2,321.37 while the S&P 500 closed down 2.9 percent at 1,283.15 after a loss of nearly 39 points.

Among the factors driving the drop:
After investment bank Goldman Sachs downgraded General Motors to a "sell" rating, the share price for the struggling automaker — and Dow component — plummeted to its lowest level since 1955. Major GM suppliers also saw their shares plunge.

Goldman Sachs also urged investors to lower their expectations of the financial sector, cutting Citigroup to a "sell" rating. The bank saw its shares drop more than a dollar by the late afternoon.

Blackberry-maker Research In Motion issued first quarter earnings results and a second-quarter outlook that missed analyst's expectations. Meanwhile, Oracle, another major player in the tech sector, posted a strong showing in its fourth-quarter results but released a disappointing first-quarter outlook.

Oil prices surged into record territory today, boosted by a report predicting that gas prices will hit $7 a gallon in the United States within two years. The market didn't like the news.

After an intra-day high of $140, oil closed at $139.65 a barrel. The new price represents a more-than-$5 spike from yesterday's close and was caused in part by statements by OPEC's president that a barrel of oil could soon be trading for more than $150 and reports that Libya is weighing cutting its oil production.

Investors also grew wary that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates until late this year, leaving little hope that the dollar with strengthen. Oil is traded in dollars and part of the run-up in oil prices has been attributed to the weak dollar.

$7 a Gallon Gas?

But today's oil price surge may pale in comparison to what some economists are predicting will happen in the near future. American motorists may soon find more pain at the pump thanks to a $3 spike in gas prices by 2010, according to a new report by economists at CIBC World Markets.

Economists at the investment bank predict that motorists will see the price of gas rise to $7 per gallon within two years, a 75 percent increase.

CIBC Chief Economist Jeff Rubin contrasted the expected price surge with those that occurred during the 1970s and 1980s OPEC oil shocks.

"Back in '73 and '79 [to] '81, somebody turned off the spigot," Rubin told ABC News.

Today, he said, "the spigot is wide open — the problem is not enough is running through it relative to world demand."

The CIBC report said that Saudi Arabia's pledged 200,000 barrels per day oil production increase and China's reduction of subsidies for domestic fuel prices will not do enough to hold oil prices in check.

The "basic laws of supply and demand" are "no longer operative in crude oil markets," the report said.

The run-up in prices will cause a dramatic change in American driving behavior, the report said. Rubin and co-author Benjamin Tal predicted that by 2012, there would be roughly 10 million fewer cars on U.S. roads than there are today.

Roughly half of those giving up their cars will be low-income Americans — specifically, those earning less than $25,000 a year, according to the report — who won't be able to afford to continue paying for gas but do have access to public transportation.

"This is going to cost money," Rubin said. "The idea of commuting 30, 40 miles a day to work is going to be untenable for most people when gasoline costs $7 a gallon."

The Associated Press and ABC News' Scott Mayerowitz contributed to this report.